BTC price analysis KW45 – annual high reached!

Even though the price fell briefly to EUR 633.75 (USD 675.28), the price overshot the week and is currently at an annual high of EUR 693.90 (USD 739.37).

After a rather quiet trading session, the price dropped to 633.75 EUR (675.28 USD) – to be exact on the EMA100 of the 240min chart (see below).

The price bounced on it and has been rising ever since

Since the day before yesterday the price has experienced a massive push and with currently 693.90 EUR (739.37 USD) has surpassed the previous annual high of mid-June.

My goodness – those were a few inspiring days! In general, with the exception of the price fall between 12 November and 13 November, there was an increase. Even this price fall was rather small compared to the dump two weeks ago. Since this drop on the EMA100 on the 240min chart, the price has risen steadily to gain another number on the 16th. Possible reasons for this “joy jump” have already been discussed elsewhere. With this rise, the maximum that the BTC reached within the scope of the entire DAO upswing was made more than competition: On June 18th, the Bitcoin was worth as much as 687.21 EUR (732.24 USD) – now we are at 693.90 EUR (739.37 USD) and have thus left the then value – albeit just – behind us!

The MACD (second panel from above) is naturally positive after this pump. But beware: the current value stagnation led to the signal (orange) falling below the MACD line (blue) – as we know, a bearish sign for short-term developments. It remains to be seen whether this will be sufficient for a dramatic price correction.

The RSI (third panel from above) dropped a bit – yesterday it was overbought of course – but with 57 it is still in the bullish zone.

The Chaikin Oszillator Chart (lower panel) is currently bobbing around zero. This is of course a cause for concern – if this falls low into negative territory it would suggest that the price will fall again.

Nevertheless – on the whole the signs are rather bullish. Caution is of course called for – even though we have passed the high for the year, we are still in the regime. Ultimately, this year’s Resistance will be tested. It could be that many people think “I’ll take my sheep to the dry” and sell them first – I couldn’t blame them! On the other hand, the developments around the yuan etc. can still drive the exchange rate. What do the other time scales say about these scenarios?

A new high for the year

The 240min chart is also clearly bullish, ultimately clearer than the 60min chart: price, trend and indicators speak the same language. We have been following a stable bullish trend since late October. Unlike the 60min chart, the MACD and Chaikin oscillator are completely bullish. The RSI was clearly oversold for a short time and is currently struggling with it. Of course, experience teaches us that caution is always advised here, but it is bullish in any case.

Here we feel a bit reminded of the 240 min chart: Everything is clearly bullish, even if currently MACD line and signal are fighting for the upper hand it looks very rosy overall.

On the one hand I have shown the trend since August and (the lower blue line) the long-term trend since the end of last year. We see that the current situation is not as dramatic as in June. At that time, one had really moved dramatically far away from the long-term trend, in general the price peak was a result of a development of a few weeks, maybe a month.

The current situation seems calmer – which reassures me: the share price peak is the result of a longer stable upward trend, which finally began in August and took off at the beginning of October.

That still makes me accept worried that we haven’t finally left June’s former year-end peak behind us – a year-end sale could still take place – but I’m cautiously bullish: The development doesn’t look like a short pump. You should keep an eye on Bitcoin for the time being and see if he breaks through the resistance sustainably.